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TheMoneyIllusion货币幻觉

美国本特利大学经济学教授斯科特·萨姆纳(Scott Sumner)

 
 
 

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美国本特利大学经济学教授

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第三条道路  

2009-06-19 08:21:20|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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  [点击查看Scott Sumner的英文博客 [Scott Sumner中文博客]  

The Third Way

The conventional wisdom says that as the economy recovers we need to wind down the fiscal stimulus as quickly as possible. Krugman makes a very persuasive argument that it is much too soon to pull back on fiscal stimulus, as the economy has not even started to recover.

传统智慧告诉我们,随着经济复苏,我们需要尽快地减少财政刺激措施。克鲁格曼提出了一个非常有说服力的观点——当经济还没有开始复苏时就撤回一揽子财政刺激政策,那就太快了。

We do need much smaller budget deficits ASAP, but we also need much more stimulus.  How do we achieve these two seemingly incompatible goals?  With a much more aggressive policy of monetary stimulus we can get faster NGDP growth, and this will reduce fiscal deficits in two ways:

我们确实需要尽快地让财政赤字大为减小,但是我们也需要更多的经济刺激措施。那我们该如何来实现这两个看似完全不相容的目标呢?采用一项更为主动的货币刺激政策,我们能获得更快的人均国内生产总值(NGDP)增长,而这会从两方面减少财政赤字:

1.  The automatic stabilizer part of the deficit will shrink naturally. 赤字的自动稳定部分会自然地减少。

2.   There will be less need for discretionary fiscal stimulus. 随机决定的财政刺激措施的需求会减少。

There are three ways to make monetary policy more stimulative.  Unfortunately the political viability of each approach is inversely related to its effectiveness.  The most effective but least likely option would be for the Fed to commit to a NGDP target path, with level targeting (i.e. a growth path that they commit to catching up to if they fall short (and vice versa).)  The second most effective option would be a modest interest penalty on excess reserves, perhaps 2%.  The least effective option is quantitative easing.  A bit of QE has been tried in the past few months, although less than many people realize.  Again, there are far more effective monetary policy tools, but as the Fed seems unwilling to use them, it looks like QE is all we have for the moment.

有三种方式能让货币政策更有促进作用。不幸地是,每种方法的政治可行性与它的有效性恰好相反。最有效但可能性最低的选择是联邦政府追求的NGDP的目标道路,它常带有水平目标(例如,一条他们达不到他们企图达到的增长途径(反之亦然))。第二种最有效的选择是采用超额准备金的适当处罚方式,或许为2%。有效性最小的选择是量化宽松措施。在前几个月中,稍微尝试了量化宽松措施,尽管意识到的人不是很多。此外,还有一些更为有效的货币政策手段,不过联邦政府似乎不愿意使用,看似我们目前所能采用的只有量化宽松措施了。

By the way, has anyone noticed what’s been happening to 5-year bond yields in the past week?  The recent drop in interest rates is really bad news.  I don’t know if the Fed fully understands the problem of low inflation expectations, but you can be sure that the stock market does.

顺便提一句,有谁注意到了5年期国债投资收益率在上周所发生的变化?最近的利率下降确实是个不好的消息。我不知道联邦政府是否充分理解低通货膨胀预期的问题,但是你能确定股票市场确实如此。

US Treasury Bonds Rates Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month
3 Month                                  0.13             0.14          0.15          0.13
6 Month                                  0.25             0.27          0.32          0.24
2 Year                                     1.23             1.27          1.41          0.85
3 Year                                     1.84             1.89          1.96          1.30
5 Year                                     2.71             2.78          2.93          2.00
10 Year                                   3.72             3.79          3.88          3.13
30 Year                                   4.58             4.64          4.62          4.08

It’s time for the Fed to stop hoping for things to turn around, and become much more proactive.  Right now they should be focused on the 2 to 5 year yields—which are signaling that near to medium term NGDP growth expectations are still far too low.

现在是联邦政府停止情况好转的幻想,提前行动的时候了。目前,他们应该关注2-5年的收益这是在发出这样的信号,就是接近中期NGDP的增长预期仍然非常低。

[BTW, if we reduce the fiscal deficits through a more expansionary monetary policy in the short run, it will reduce the risk of future inflation, as future governments won't feel pressured to inflate away large nominal debts.]

[顺便说一句,如果我们在短期内通过采用更强的扩张性货币政策来减少财政赤字,那么它会减少未来发生通货膨胀的风险,因为未来的政府对大量名义债务不会感觉有通货膨胀的压力。]

 

 [点击查看Scott Sumner的英文博客 [Scott Sumner中文博客]  

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